Favorable Prior Period Development Lessening; Adverse Rising (Nov., 2023)
In an Assured Comment released Nov. 20th, Assured Research scrubbed fresh 3Q23 statutory data to observe that some 46% of the roughly 1700 entities reporting experienced adverse reserve development YTD 3Q23. That figure is up 11 points from ~35% reporting adverse development over the preceding several years. Might adverse reserve development sustain the hard insurance market? Ask for our Assured Comment on the topic.
Assured Research Raises a Yellow Flag on Workers' Compensation (October, 2023)
Assured Research has raised the yellow flag on workers' compensation U/W margins. Our concern - the era of a mega-cycle in WC profitability may be waning. Our reasons include rising medical cost trends, a shrinking gap in the wage/medical trend lines, and most recently our observation that the benefits from the decade-long decline in opioid Rx is probably in the 8th inning. We'd be pleased to share this work as part of a trial, and our research on opioid Rx trends was featured in Carrier Management.
Risk Based Capital Ratios May Begin to Bite (Aug. and Oct., 2023)
Risk based capital ratios at YE22 were among the lowest in a decade among many P/C insurers writing a substantial volume of private passenger auto insurance. Generationally high loss ratios and adverse reserve development drive RBC's U/W risk which accounts for some 2/3 of RBC-need for most P/C insurers. Bad news - YE23 ratios for many auto writers may move lower still. Learn more through a trial to our work.
Assured Research YouTube Channel (June, 2023)
Over the past month we've begun to post short videos (10 min. or so) to a new Assured Research YouTube Channel. Current videos cover the accounting for fixed income securities (relevant in the context of recent bank failures), the impact of inflation on actuarial work, and most recently our deconstruction and reconstitution of the Medical CPI for P/C insurers. Links are accessible by all, though for the most insights we encourage a trial subscription.
Assured Research Makes Carrier Management Top 100 (February, 2023)
Assured Research was honored to be included - twice - in Carrier Management's release of their top 100 articles (top 10 each year for their 10 years of publishing). We participated in research on predictive analytics in 2013 (#6) and our article on social inflation was #7 in 2020. Wishing Carrier Management another successful decade ahead! Download their report at no cost here.